![]() ![]() If you look at the slide above, it looks like a hard story not to love. That big picture also shows why this is headed lower. The big picture is what drives investing for us and the key reason why we have not touched this despite the crowd going mad for this. If you want more granular detail on the latest tower built or the minutiae around the 1% movement in revenue outlook, this is not the place to find it. A Valuation RideĪs with most of our work, we focus on the big valuation picture. The numbers were simply stunning including a 20% compounded dividend growth!īut the longer things go this well, the bigger the blowback is when they stop going so well. This was all true and AMT has been a genuine success story over the 2010-2022 period. 3 tenants were far more profitable than three times the profits for one tenant.ĪMT broke this math further for everyone so you could see the numbers they were talking about. As a leading owner of towers, the story was easy to cell. The CompanyĪmerican Tower Corporation ( NYSE: AMT) is one where investors ran with the growth story and ran too far with it. This mania reversed in 2022 and for a good deal of companies (at least any company without an AI mention), shows no signs of coming back. They had to, because people would have to be insane to buy them for the 2023 numbers. Most investors were making bullish cases based on 2030 revenues. ![]() Just have a look at the bullish cases for SPACs and recent IPOs of the time. If you produced growth, investors were ready to look far into the future to come up with a semblance of a reasonable end result. Over the 2010-2021 timeframe, markets tended to be extremely generous with multiples for growth companies. ![]()
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